Data Shows Bitcoin Top Buyers Already Capitulated, New Bull Rally Here?
On-chain data suggests Bitcoin buyers who entered at the top may have already capitulated. Last time such a trend happened was back in July 2021, following which a new bull rally occurred.
Lackluster Bitcoin Sell-Off Recently May Suggest Top Buyers Have Already Capitulated
As per the latest weekly report from Glassnode, there hasn’t been any significant loss realization recently despite world-changing events taking place this week.
The relevant on-chain indicator here is the “net realized profit/loss,” which tells us whether the overall Bitcoin market is realizing profits or losses right now.
The metric works by looking at each coin on the blockchain to see what price it last moved at. If this price is less than the current price (that is, the selling price), then the coin sold at a profit. Investors harvesting a large amount of profit generally leads to a correction in the price.
On the other hand, the buying price being more than the current one would imply a realization of loss. The Bitcoin market observing a significant amount of losses being realized can be a sign of widespread capitulation.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the BTC net realized profit/loss over the past year:
The value of the indicator seems to have been slightly negative recently | Source: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 9, 2022
As you can see in the above graph, it looks like a net amount of loss has been realized recently. However, despite the massive bearish event that is the Russia-Ukraine war taking place this week, the magnitude of these losses is pretty small.
Usually, during such events, capitulation happens in the market where a huge negative spike in the indicator is observed.
An absence of such a spike may be a sign that those who bought Bitcoin at the top had already dumped their Bitcoin during the two capitulation events that preceded this one.
The report has also highlighted a similarity in the chart between the current trend and the one during the May-July mini-bear period.
Before the rally started, It looks like there were three negative spikes back then, with the third being much smaller in magnitude. This trend is quite similar to now.
If there is a pattern here, then the current third spike would mean a fresh Bitcoin bull rally may be beginning soon.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $43.5k, up 15% over the last week.
Looks like the price of Bitcoin has shown a sharp surge over the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com