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What’s next for Bitcoin ETFs? U.S. Equity indexes roar to new highs on the back of earnings season. – Crypto News

What’s next for Bitcoin ETFs? U.S. Equity indexes roar to new highs on the back of earnings season.

0



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Ensure you have verified your account at Ledn.

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Share your referral link with your family and friends for your chance to win.
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Bitcoin 🟠

Bitcoin closed a week of low volatility at the top. It finished last week up +0.74% on Sunday evening but gave it all back on Monday, finishing down -0.74% at $60,922.

It has continued to consolidate within a narrow price range of $67,016 and a low of $56,425 – on increasing volume. From a technical standpoint, the pattern it is displaying is often referred to as a “bull flag” – which tends to have positive continuation.

While this is not the first time that bitcoin has traded in the $60ks, the price-action has been less volatile this time around.

In fact, bitcoin volatility spikes have been making “lower highs” since 2014.

The volatility graph above is, theoretically, exactly what you would expect from a new asset undergoing price discovery over time. As the asset matures, it should become less volatile. It is trending in the right direction.
As we mentioned in our last issue, the bitcoin futures ETFs underwent their first futures contract expiration and roll-over last week.
Both $BITO and $BTF had to sell their October expiration contracts and replace them with contracts expiring in either November or December. Here is the breakdown for $BITO courtesy of Athanasios Psarofagis from Bloomberg.

As you can see, $BITO’s October contracts peaked on October 20th and started aggressively declining after October 25th. Parallel to that, the number of November contracts increased dramatically. By Psafogari’s calculations, the total rollover cost was 11%.
While this highlights the relative underperformance of a futures-based ETF relative to spot prices, the range of possibilities for ETFs is quite broad. For example, there are 2X ETFs, like the SPUU. The “2X” fund uses leverage to amplify the returns of the underlying asset. As you can see, SPUU outperforms SPY both on the way up and down.

And so, the case has already started building for a leveraged bitcoin futures ETF. The chart below is courtesy of Bloomberg and shows how a 1.25X and 2X Bitcoin ETF would perform relative to the spot price.

The leverage amplification would certainly compensate for the rollover bleed problem that we have discussed at length. Valkyrie had been quick to introduce a 1.25 X ETF application, which it dubbed “leverage for ants”.

However, it was quickly withdrawn, signalling that regulators were not keen on accepting any variation to the plain vanilla approach just yet.
The new Bitcoin ETF has certainly elevated the implied premiums in the CME Bitcoin Futures contracts.

We saw the implied premiums on the 3-month contracts go from ~2% at the start of October, to a high of almost 16% on October 21st, and they are currently trading at ~7%. The high premiums generate demand to borrow dollars and stablecoins, which allows lenders to charge higher interest rates.

source

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